PRANANDA, ARIENDRA WIRYA (2026) EVALUASI KINERJA WAKTU PROYEK DINDING PENAHAN TANAH BERBASIS SIMULASI MONTE CARLO DENGAN VARIABEL RISIKO CURAH HUJAN (STUDI KASUS: PANDANARAN AVENUE, SEMARANG). S1 thesis, UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK SOEGIJAPRANATA SEMARANG.

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Abstract

Conventional deterministic scheduling is less adaptive in managing climate uncertainty. This research aims to evaluate the time performance and structural stability of Retaining Walls (RW) at Pandanaran Avenue, Semarang, using a quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Geotechnical parameters were identified through laboratory testing, while weather risks were derived from GPM-IMERG satellite data (2005–2024) using the Weibull method to establish a Triangular Distribution across 10,000 simulation iterations. Laboratory results classified the excavated soil as medium-plasticity Silty Clays (c = 18 kPa, φ = 32.74°, PI = 8,23%). Based on SNI 8460:2017 calculations, the Type C RW was declared stable, whereas Types A and B were unstable, requiring foundation base widening to 2,400 mm and 3,800 mm, respectively. Schedule analysis shows that the initial plan of 77 working days shifted to a simulation average of 106 days (+37.7%). At a 90% confidence level (P90), the recommended safe duration is 122 days. The actual physical realization in the field reached 142 days, exceeding the simulation's pessimistic limit (136 days). This gap proves that the cumulative delay was not only triggered by hydrometeorological constraints but also by other factors such as internal operational inefficiencies of labor and heavy equipment. This study recommends implementing a scientific time buffer as a foundation for project delay risk mitigation.

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